Leaders optimistic about eventual USMCA renewal as deadline approaches

While leaders are expressing doubt that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be renewed by a July deadline, optimism remains that an agreement will be reached.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled to Mexico on April 20 to continue discussions to review the USMCA. Speaking May 5 at an event in Washington, Sergio Gomez Lora, the executive director of Mexico’s Business Coordinating Council, said: “I would say July 1 will not get a renewal of the USMCA, and we will not have a withdrawal,” according to Politico.

Greer echoed those sentiments last month before his trip to Mexico.

“I think that we aren’t probably going to be able to resolve all issues by July 1,” Greer said at the Washington-based Hudson Institute. “But I think we are on track to resolve many of them and to move as quickly as we can.”

Greer and Mexico’s economy minister Marcelo Ebrard met in Washington in March.

In January, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to begin talks on possible USMCA reforms. Under the trilateral trade deal that took effect in 2020, the U.S., Mexico and Canada must launch a joint review of the trade pact by July 1, its sixth anniversary.

The review sets up a three-way choice for each country: Parties can renew the deal for another 16 years, withdraw from it or signal both non-renewal and non-withdrawal, triggering an annual review that could keep negotiations going for up to a decade.

The agreement, negotiated during the first Trump administration to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, has shielded Canada and Mexico from the worst impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. His worldwide 10% duty does not apply to goods that comply with the agreement.

A 40-member coalition formed in support of the agreement in February.