Looking into the Future

USDA released its agricultural projections through 2017 in February, and the report indicates that agriculture – and the fresh-cut industry by inference – is poised for some good years ahead.


Rising costs – labor, fuel and land – will increasingly be offset by rising agricultural exports and changes in consumer spending, according to the report. Demand for new varieties and rising consumer incomes will increase agricultural imports to nearly $105 billion by 2017, while growth in developing countries, a weak dollar and steady population growth will drive agricultural exports to $103 billion .

One of the most interesting sections of the agricultural report is the breakdown on consumer food spending. In 2007, Americans spent $583.6 billion on food at home, compared to $554.1 billion on food away from home. By 2012 – just a few years from now – money spent on food away from home is projected to surpass in-home, and by 2017 food bought away from home will make up 52 percent of total food expenditures, or $868.7 billion of the total $1,671.1 billion. Food prices also will continue to increase at a rate higher than inflation, with prices on food purchased away from home increasing slightly more than food purchased for home.

The fresh-cut industry is positioned well for the coming years. As consumers look for more convenience and quicker meal options away from home, quick service and casual restaurants will require more produce in a convenient and safe form. Consumers are looking for new flavors as well, and the fresh-cut industry is known for being innovative in bringing new, exotic fruits and vegetables to retail markets and foodservice customers.

I don’t know how many processors look eight or nine years into the future – not many of us have a crystal ball or the resources of USDA – but tracking consumer and industry trends is important for the industry. Operating on the same business model five or more years out may mean missing out on a growing segment of the market, playing catch-up instead of leading.

Take Polaroid, for example. The company’s instant photograph film had many good years, but as consumers have moved to digital cameras the Polaroid camera became obsolete. The company announced this year that it would no longer produce film, but would focus on digital photography technology – an example of a company willing to innovate and adapt to the changing marketplace.’

The future isn’t set, but it appears that there is reason for optimism. Looking over the hurdles of rising fuel costs, food safety regulations and labor issues, to name a few, the industry has the potential to grow steadily. And that’s good for your business and for your customers.



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